Technological Predictions

Tomorrow in class I plan to talk about Ray Kurzweil, a computer scientist who has played a large role in the invention of communication technologies such as a reading machine for the blind. James Katz mentioned Kurzweil in "Future Communication Technology and Social Settings." Kurzweil is confident that technological advances for communication and other aspects of life will affect us sooner than we may think. In 1999, he made predictions for the status of certain technologies for future decades. Now that we are quickly approaching the end of 2008, I thought it would be interesting to review some of his predictions for 2009. Some of them are fairly accurate, but others still have not taken off. Here are some samples:

"Individuals primarily use portable computers, which have become dramatically lighter and thinner than the notebook computers of 10 years earlier. Portable computers are available in a wide range of sizes and shapes and are commonly embedded in clothing and jewelry such as wristwatches, rings, earrings, and other body ornaments."

"People typically have at least a dozen computers on and around their bodies, which are networked using "body LANs (local area networks). These computers provide communication facilities similar to cellular phones, pagers, and Web surfers..."

"Cables are disappearing. Communication between components, such as pointing devices, microphones, displays, printers, and the occasional keyboard, uses short-distance wireless technology."

"The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) dictation software, but keyboards are still used. CSR is very accurate, far more so than the human transcriptionists who were used until a few years ago."

"Translating telephone technology (where you speak in English and your Japanese friend hears you in Japanese, and vice versa) is commonly used for many language pairs. It is a routine capability of an individual's personal computer, which also serves as a phone."

"Learning materials are accessed through wireless communication."

Kurzweil also made some predictions for 2019, 2029, and 2099 in this article, which I will highlight in class if there is time. Here is the citation if you are interested in reading the rest of his ideas. I found the article through a library search.

Kurzweil, Ray. 1999. Spiritual Machines: The Merging of Man and Machine. The Futurist: November: 16-21.

I would also recommend his book "The Age of Spiritual Machines" if you need ideas for a good Christmas-break read.

Also search Kurzweil on the internet - very fascinating inventions and ideas!